Before laying it all out let me just say that this year's biggest categories (mainly director and picture) are really hard to call. This is a year where I'm sure I am right about a number of winners, but there's a couple very important ones where I could very well be flat wrong. While I don't have a lot of smart explanations like many smart people out there (Roger Ebert) for why different movies/people should win, I'll do my best to give a brief reason. Or two. Or maybe not. We'll see.
So, let's start from the bottom, with the stuff that doesn't really matter, shall we?
Best Documentary Features - Restrepo
So while 'Exit Through the Gift Shop' is a fantastic doc as well (that might be fake?), 'Restrepo deserves to win. It is as raw and real as a documentary can get. Two camera men embedded with a platoon in the most dangerous combat zone in Afghanistan makes for one of the most exciting and emotionally real docs you'll probably ever see. Sadly, we all know the 'issue' doc will win ('Waste Land', 'Gas Land', or 'Inside Job') because that's what people care about. So this category is more what-I-want-to-win rather than an accurate 'prediction.'
Best Achievement in Visual Effects - Inception
Since we all know the Academy loves to snub Christopher Nolan, they'll have to settle with awarding arguably the best movie of the year with all the technical awards. But let's face it, it really does deserve it all.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing - Inception
*see above comment*